I'm not a Constitutional scholar. Unfortunately, neither is Clarence Thomas, and you can bet no one else Bush nominates to the SCOTUS will be either [tangent: does SCOTUS sound vaguely dirty to anyone else?].
Say what you will about William Rehnquist, but the man has a scholarly gravitas which I respect even though I don't agree with him on much, if anything. Thomas on the other hand has the scholarly qualifications of a moray eel. And he's W's favorite Justice. D'oh!
So, what does this mean for the next 30 years of jurisprudence in this country?
First, kiss Roe v. Wade goodbye. Young women who didn't vote this election are going to have a rude wake-up call during the second Bush administration. Not only will they see their right to equal access to healthcare disappear, but I predict that the wage gap will increase, single moms will be increasingly persecuted, and attitudes towards all women will become less tolerant. Banning abortion is the thousandth step in the Christian Right's war on the feminine
Second, gay marriage bans have much less chance of being struck down. For all that conservatives argue for a strict interpretation of the Constitution to try to skirt the wall between church and state, and avoid applying "unreasonable search and seizure" unless it suits them, they like to overlook the Fourteenth Amendment. Really, how hard is it to comprehend "nor shall any State. . . deny to any person within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws." And if that's not good enough, how about this: Amendment IX: The enumeration in the Constitution of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people.
Third, expect major portions of the USA PATRIOT Act to be upheld. Rumor is that John Ashcroft will step down for Bush's second term. It's worth remembering that he will leave office having convicted exactly zero terrorists, even with the PATRIOT Act. It's also worth rememebering that Ben Franklin said "They that can give up essential liberty to obtain a little temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety."
Fourth, expect that John Gilmore will lose his case before the Court. We are all so used to showing ID at the airport, at the train station, at the bus depot, at national parks, that we don't stop to examine the reasons or weigh the benefits. People with more security expertise than I will ever possess have explained why ID checks make us less secure.
There's more, of course, there's always more. Welcome to the United States of Jesus, ladies and gentelmen, where if Jesus were alive today his Middle Eastern looks and radical ways would land him in Gitmo.
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